Europa League Parlay Picks for Thursday, November 5, 2026

Thursday, November 5, 2026

Safe Pair

A conservative two-leg card built around teams with the strongest win profiles and no major injury red flags in the notes.

+11742% hit chancePending
  1. Bournemouth to win-230
    Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth · 12:45 PM ET Pending
    Sparta Prague WLWDL (home 1-1-0, #16 in table) · Bournemouth WWWWW (away 2-1-2, #4 in table)

    Bournemouth are priced as a 67% hit and come in on five straight wins, scoring 2.07 goals per game. Their listed absences look more like depth issues, while Sparta have been inconsistent at 2-1-2.

  2. SK Sturm Graz to win-195
    SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje · 3:00 PM ET Pending
    SK Sturm Graz LWWDD (home 5-3-1, #19 in table) · NK Celje DLLLD (away 0-2-2, #29 in table)

    SK Sturm Graz have a 63% consensus hit chance and a strong 5-3-1 home record. NK Celje are winless away at 0-2-2 and have conceded 1.89 goals per game.

Odds from DraftKings at posting time. Hit chance uses odds from many sportsbooks with their margin removed. It's an estimate, not a promise.

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Value Three

This three-leg parlay mixes one short-priced anchor with two playable plus-money sides that have reasonable form or matchup support.

+43616% hit chancePending
  1. Benfica to win-750
    Benfica vs Lech Poznań · 3:00 PM ET Pending
    Benfica WWWWW (home 8-1-0, #2 in table) · Lech Poznań WDLLD (away 2-1-1, #32 in table)

    Benfica are the slate’s highest-probability side at 84% and are 8-1-0 at home while averaging 2.95 goals per game. Their midfield news is not ideal, but the overall form edge over Lech Poznań is still clear.

  2. Besiktas JK to win+120
    Celtic vs Besiktas JK · 3:00 PM ET Pending
    Celtic WLWDL (home 5-1-3, #35 in table) · Besiktas JK WLDWD (away 4-1-4, #8 in table)

    Besiktas have a 43% hit chance and sit 8th with 7 points from 3, while Celtic are 35th with 0 points. Celtic also have a couple of injury questions, including Alistair Johnston.

  3. Hapoel Be'er Sheva to win+115
    Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs OFI Crete · 3:00 PM ET Pending
    Hapoel Be'er Sheva WLDLL (home 3-1-0, #30 in table) · OFI Crete LLLWW (away 3-0-4, #26 in table)

    Hapoel Be’er Sheva have a 45% hit chance and are unbeaten at home this season at 3-1-0. OFI Crete have won recently, but their away record is still a modest 3-0-4.

Odds from DraftKings at posting time. Hit chance uses odds from many sportsbooks with their margin removed. It's an estimate, not a promise.

Long Shot

A bigger-payout four-leg card using two steadier favorites and two underdogs with credible form-based paths to an upset.

+13336% hit chancePending
  1. Bournemouth to win-230
    Sparta Prague vs Bournemouth · 12:45 PM ET Pending
    Sparta Prague WLWDL (home 1-1-0, #16 in table) · Bournemouth WWWWW (away 2-1-2, #4 in table)

    Bournemouth are in better current form with five straight wins and a 9-point start in the league phase. Sparta have only a small sample this season and are conceding 1.4 goals per game.

  2. SK Sturm Graz to win-195
    SK Sturm Graz vs NK Celje · 3:00 PM ET Pending
    SK Sturm Graz LWWDD (home 5-3-1, #19 in table) · NK Celje DLLLD (away 0-2-2, #29 in table)

    Sturm Graz are reliable at home at 5-3-1, and Celje have yet to win away. The 63% consensus chance gives this long shot one steadier base leg.

  3. Besiktas JK to win+120
    Celtic vs Besiktas JK · 3:00 PM ET Pending
    Celtic WLWDL (home 5-1-3, #35 in table) · Besiktas JK WLDWD (away 4-1-4, #8 in table)

    Besiktas are a live plus-money side at 43% with a 13-2-4 season record and just 0.95 goals conceded per game. Celtic score well at home, but their European table position and injury questions add risk.

  4. Union Saint-Gilloise to win+200
    Celta Vigo vs Union Saint-Gilloise · 3:00 PM ET Pending
    Celta Vigo LWWDL (home 2-2-3, #25 in table) · Union Saint-Gilloise DDWWW (away 6-0-1, #6 in table)

    Union Saint-Gilloise are only a 32% consensus hit, but their 10-4-1 season record and 6-0-1 away mark make them a real chance. Celta Vigo have scored just 0.93 goals per game and are only 2-2-3 at home.

Odds from DraftKings at posting time. Hit chance uses odds from many sportsbooks with their margin removed. It's an estimate, not a promise.

Team news we checked
- Mike Maignan — AC Milan — out: suspended after his red card vs Bournemouth; Milan also have Tomori, Chukwueze, Gabbia, Saelemaekers and Loftus-Cheek out, so the spine is heavily disrupted. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Máté Bero — Ferencváros TC — out: absent for the trip to San Siro, which trims their midfield depth against a Milan side likely to rotate. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Kilian Sardella — Anderlecht — out: one of three confirmed defensive absentees, which weakens Anderlecht’s back line against Salzburg. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Ilay Camara — Anderlecht — out: another injury loss for Anderlecht, adding to the defensive shortage. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Lucas Hey — Anderlecht — out: ruled out as well, leaving Anderlecht thin at the back. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Marten Winkler — Anderlecht — questionable: an injury concern after missing the weekend win, so Anderlecht’s wide options are still unclear. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Chadi Riad — Crystal Palace — out: Palace remain without him, plus Ismaïla Sarr and Takehiro Tomiyasu, which hurts their defensive and attacking balance. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Ismaïla Sarr — Crystal Palace — out: groin injury; Palace miss a direct threat in transition. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Takehiro Tomiyasu — Crystal Palace — out: calf injury; another defensive absence that matters if Hoffenheim press high. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Jörgen Strand Larsen — Crystal Palace — questionable: could make the squad after an ankle issue, which would give Palace a much-needed attacking option. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Quinten Timber — Crystal Palace — questionable: may also be fit to return, which would help Palace’s midfield control. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Dusan Tadić — NEC Nijmegen — out: calf injury has kept him out since mid-October; NEC lose their most experienced attacking creator. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Philippe Sandler — NEC Nijmegen — out: another defensive absentee, reducing NEC’s options at centre-back. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Bram Nuytinck — NEC Nijmegen — out: sidelined too, so NEC are short on defensive leadership. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Emre Mor — NEC Nijmegen — out: also unavailable, taking away another attacking rotation piece. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Dennis Geiger — NEC Nijmegen — out: one more midfield absence, narrowing NEC’s options through the middle. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Luken Beitia — Real Sociedad — out: injury absence, which matters because Sociedad are already missing two more defenders/midfielders. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Álvaro Odriozola — Real Sociedad — out: another defensive absence that could force a reshuffle at full-back. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Arsen Zakharyan — Real Sociedad — out: unavailable through injury, trimming Sociedad’s creative options in the final third. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Leandro Barreiro — Benfica — out: expected to miss around two months with a thigh injury, so Benfica lose midfield depth. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Enzo Barrenechea — Benfica — questionable: still doubtful with a knee problem, which could affect Benfica’s control in midfield. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Dodi Lukebakio — Benfica — questionable: came off last weekend, but reports suggest it’s not serious; his availability matters because he adds pace and directness. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Alistair Johnston — Celtic — questionable: Celtic are still dealing with his injury, which matters because he’s a key piece in their defensive structure. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Yang Hyun-Jun — Celtic — questionable: also in the treatment room, reducing Celtic’s attacking wing options. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Eliesse Ben Seghir — Bayer Leverkusen — out: one of four attacking injuries, so Leverkusen are seriously short in the forward line. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Martin Terrier — Bayer Leverkusen — out: another frontline absence, adding to the attack crisis. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Christian Kofane — Bayer Leverkusen — out: ruled out as well, leaving Patrik Schick with fewer support runners. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Moussa Diaby — Bayer Leverkusen — out: absent, which matters because Leverkusen may have to improvise in advanced roles. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Guela Doué — Bayer Leverkusen — out: right-back injury forces a defensive change on the flank. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Federico Gatti — Juventus — out: one of several new absentees as Juve’s injury crisis deepens. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Nico González — Juventus — out: another fresh loss, reducing Juventus’ attacking/wing options. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Kenan Yıldız — Juventus — out: a major creative absence that matters against AZ’s pressing and transition game. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Manuel Locatelli — Juventus — out: the captain is sidelined, which is a big blow to Juventus’ midfield control. (sportsmole.co.uk)
- Daniel Ballard — Sunderland — out: confirmed absent with a muscle issue, weakening Sunderland’s defence. (aol.com)
- Habib Diarra — Sunderland — out: ruled out for about six weeks, so Sunderland lose a key midfield engine. (aol.com)
- Nordi Mukiele — Sunderland — out: concussion absence further thins Sunderland’s back line. (lineupstoday.com)
- J. Araujo — Bournemouth — out: thigh injury leaves Bournemouth short at full-back/defensive cover. (web-production-a0606.up.railway.app)
- A. Scott — Bournemouth — out: another thigh injury, reducing Bournemouth’s wing depth. (web-production-a0606.up.railway.app)
- A. Toth — Bournemouth — questionable: muscle issue, so Bournemouth’s selection on the bench may be limited. (web-production-a0606.up.railway.app)
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