NBA Parlay Picks for Thursday, November 5, 2026

Thursday, November 5, 2026

Safe Pair

Safe Pair uses the best available win-probability anchor with a rested underdog getting a small cushion against a tired, thin opponent.

+15536% hit chancePending
  1. Golden State Warriors to win-281
    Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors · 10:10 PM ET Pending
    Heat 3-5 (away 2-2, W1, back-to-back) · Warriors 5-3 (home 3-1, W5)

    Golden State has the highest listed hit chance at 71%, is 3-1 at home, and comes in on two days rest while Miami is on a back-to-back. Jimmy Butler being out does make the Warriors thinner, so the moneyline is safer than laying -7.5.

  2. Orlando Magic +1.5-114
    Orlando Magic @ Phoenix Suns · 9:10 PM ET Pending
    Magic 2-5 (away 2-1, L2) · Suns 1-5 (home 1-2, L4, back-to-back)

    Orlando gets 1.5 points with a 51% consensus hit chance, and Phoenix is on a back-to-back with a four-game losing streak. The Suns are also missing Mark Williams, which hurts their size and rim protection against Orlando.

Odds from DraftKings at posting time. Hit chance uses odds from many sportsbooks with their margin removed. It's an estimate, not a promise.

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Team news we checked
- Jordan Goodwin — Suns — questionable: calf soreness; his availability could affect Phoenix’s backcourt depth and spacing. (cdn-uat.nba.com)
- Mark Williams — Suns — out: shoulder surgery; Phoenix is missing size/rim protection against Orlando. (ak-static.cms.nba.com)
- Jimmy Butler III — Warriors — out: knee surgery; Golden State remains shorthanded on the wing vs. Miami. (deepmetricanalytics.com)
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